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Filed under: Majors, Strategy | Tags: Fantasy Baseball, Aaron Hill, Second Basemen, Toronto Blue Jays, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, Howie Kendrick
Few middle infield prospects have been as hyped as Howie Kendrick over the decade. I’m as guilty as most fantasy analysts. As anyone who has read my past work at Fanball knows when I discuss Kendrick, I like to cite the work done at Baseball Prospectus regarding a stat they call translated batting average (TBA). TBA tries to take the luck factor out of the equation and put all hitters on as even of a playing field as possible. Right before Kendrick’s rookie season in 2006, they released a study that claimed there were 54 players who posted a TBA of .300 or better in a season in which they were age 22 or younger (minimum 300 AB), and only seven of them made the list twice. The list included Sean Burroughs, Miguel Cabrera, Joe Mauer, Albert Pujols, Tony Torcato, David Wright, and Howie Kendrick.
Clearly Kendrick’s upside is significant, but it would be unwise for fantasy owners to overlook Blue Jays second baseman Aaron Hill.
2B Aaron Hill, Blue Jays (Last Two Years)
| Year | G | AB | AVG | R | HR | RBI | SB | OBP | SLG | OPS |
| 2006 | 155 | 546 | .291 | 70 | 6 | 50 | 5 | .349 | .386 | .735 |
| 2007 | 160 | 608 | .291 | 87 | 17 | 78 | 4 | .333 | .459 | .792 |
2B Howie Kendrick, Angels (Last Two Years)
| Year | G | AB | AVG | R | HR | RBI | SB | OBP | SLG | OPS |
| 2006 | 72 | 267 | .285 | 25 | 4 | 30 | 6 | .314 | .416 | .730 |
| 2007 | 88 | 338 | .322 | 55 | 5 | 39 | 5 | .347 | .450 | .796 |
Given the awe-inspiring ability of Howie, it’s been that much more disappointing that injuries have taken a large bite out of the two years he’s spent in the majors. It was a pair of finger injuries that limited him in 2007, but he still managed to post a high contact rate–one of the only positive signs in an otherwise lost season. His fly ball rate (down from 33 % in ‘06 to 30% in ‘07) is declining and that combined with a falling batting eye (BB/K) are reasons to doubt his power ever develops to the extent his ability to hit for average does. Despite that facet of his game being in doubt to a certain extent, Kendrick seems to fit the mold of a post-hype sleeper capable of a breakout season in 2008.
Then there is Aaron Hill who, after three seasons in the big leagues, finally enjoyed something of a power breakout. He had to trade some of his contact rate and batting eye to enjoy the improvement in numbers, but his climbing fly ball rate and ability to drive the ball seem to suggest further improvement isn’t out of the question. If he doesn’t return to a more patient approach at the plate, it will be tough for him to continue to flirt with a .300 average on an annual basis, but he showed last year that his overall game is heading in the right direction.
Comparing Kendrick and Hill’s potential numbers is an interesting process. Hill would seemingly have a significant edge in homers, RBI, and runs, but if he bats near the top of the lineup that could affect his RBI total. His spot in the lineup doesn’t seem settled and I’ve seen him penciled in at No. 2 and No. 7 in two different places, so dialing in his numbers at this point is fairly difficult. That said, Kendrick is pretty much settled in nearly the bottom of the Angels lineup and that makes a prediction of a more modest run total a bit safer. The edge in batting average goes to Kendrick assuming he’s healthy, but the gap between him and Hill in regards to stolen bases seems negligible at best. It’s also tough to argue that either lineup is significantly stronger than the other, providing us with fewer and fewer ways to differentiate the two promising youngsters. When I weigh everything out, I FAVOR HILL IN THIS SHOWDOWN, and not because I’m a biased Blue Jays fan (see my About page). Hill clearly provides more pop and I believe the fact he’ll hit more long balls probably gives him the edge in runs and RBI. That edge is pronounced enough that any miniscule advantage Kendrick may have in terms of average or stolen bases is insignificant, particularly when you consider he’ll cost you an earlier pick or another fistful of auction bucks on drauction day.
Filed under: Strategy | Tags: Alexei Ramirez, Chicago White Sox, Fantasy Baseball
Not unlike many baseball analysts, I take everything that happens during spring training with a grain of salt. That said, I don’t believe you can write off EVERYTHING like some experts suggest, as you can get a pretty strong idea about roles, both now and in the future. Prior to the White Sox first spring contest, I was already mildly intrigued by Cuban defector Alexei Ramirez.
When Ramirez became an international free agent, fellow Cuban and White Sox pitcher Jose Contreras urged the team to consider him. The 26-ish year old (as a defector his age is something of a gray area) sure made an impression in his first major league action, going 4-for-5 with a pair of doubles, three runs, and one RBI against the Rockies on Thursday.
“All the coaches around the national team I played for in Cuba told me I could play at this level,” Ramirez told the Chicago Tribune after his first workout this spring. The early results this spring certainly suggest those coaches were right.
“A lot of people say it means nothing,” manager Ozzie Guillen added. “It might mean a lot to him, his first game in the [major leagues] and the way he performed.”
Ramirez led the Cuban pro league in homers last season as an outfielder (he has experience at 2B and SS), and while he projects to be more of a gap hitter in the majors, that was enough reason for the Pale Hose to give him a look when they failed to sign a major league free agent such as Torii Hunter. Reports out of camp claim he looks much leaner than his 6′ 1″ and 180 pounds would suggest, but there is a general sense of intrigue over his athleticism, drive to be successful, and powerful swing that draws comparisons to another Chicago favorite, Cubs outfielder Alfonso Soriano.
That’s obviously not a fair comparison at this point in his young career, but it speaks volumes about his potential if he can win a regular role with the team. He will see better off-speed pitches and overall talent at the major league level and that is bound to produce some hiccups, but he’s a guy fantasy owners should keep an eye on. Why?
Consider that he’s currently No. 1 on the Sox’s depth chart at second base over at MLB.com and his only competition is Danny Richar (who was delayed in getting to camp with visa issues), and veterans Pablo Ozuna and Juan Uribe. The stiffest competition figures to come from Uribe who despite hitting 20 or more long balls in each of the last two seasons, has failed to hit over .235 in either season and whiffed 112 in 513 at bats last season. No team wants to admit their ceiling is limited in the coming season, but the White Sox aren’t projected to be a playoff team, which should suggest they consider the significant potential of the young Cuban versus the average (at best) production they figure to get from the alternatives. If it seems as though he’ll get a decent number of at bats this season, fantasy owners should still only consider him as an option in keeper league formats.
Filed under: Ankiel, Castellanos, Glaus, Gonzalez, La Russa, Larue, Molina, Rasmus, Reyes, Rolen, Schumaker, Wainwright
The Cardinals opened their Grapefruit League play with a win over the New York Mets today by the score of 7-0. After yesterday’s beating of St. Louis University, the Cards are now 2-0 in the early going.
- Troy Glaus had a nice barehanded play but the throw wasn’t in time - three people around me simultaneously said, “Rolen would have made that play.”
- Skip Schumaker was 3 for 4 with a stolen base.
- Hugo Castellanos pitched well but I wouldn’t mind seeing the radar gun on him - looks very slow.
- Girls that drink beer are more attractive than ones that don’t.
- Mets fans were pleasant.
Filed under: Majors | Tags: Fantasy Baseball, Seattle Mariners, Kenny G, Miguel Batista
After seeing today’s Seattle Times, two things are clear: 1) a snowball might have a chance in hell and 2) this post isn’t going to be brimming with fantasy advice.
There is a new reason to take Miguel Batista off your rankings, and it’s not an elbow injury. He confessed to his motivation for starting saxophone lessons last summer: the fingernails on a chalkboard, nausea-inducing sounds of Kenny G.
“He played for me,” Batista told the Seattle Times regarding meeting his idol. “It was my favorite song, ‘Alone.’ Now, I feel like I’ve had everything. I’ve talked pitching with Sandy Koufax, had Kenny G play for me. Maybe if I could have an interview with God, then I’d be served. I’d be complete.”
Yeah folks, he compared Kenny G to Sandy Koufax not to mention the Big G. God. He compared Kenny G to God. Hold on a second, my laptop is shaking while I convulse with gut-wrenching laughter. Heck, maybe the “G” in Kenny G refers to God?
Nope…it refers to Gorelick.
So does this mean that he’ll demand Kenneth Gorelick (Kenny’s real name) provide his warm up music in Safeco? We wouldn’t wish that upon our worst enemy, but the Safeco Field faithful should be aware of the fact that the odds of Kenny playing the national anthem prior to one of Batista’s 2008 starts have been set as even. Heck fantasy owners may even want to pick him up if they get ahold of the date Kenny is penciled in for, because it just may be enough motivation for Batista to toss the best game of his career.
EDITORS NOTE: In looking up Kenny G images for this post, it came to my attention that there is actually an album called “The Essential Kenny G.” Kenny G is not essential. Deoderant is essential. Toothpaste is essential. Not Kenny G.
Filed under: Majors, Strategy | Tags: Fantasy Baseball, Corey Hart, Garrett Atkins, Experts' Mock Draft
So the fine folks at Mock Draft Central just held their third experts mock draft of the spring last night and while I didn’t participate, a good friend and former Fanball colleague of mine (Christian Peterson) did. I tend to agree with Christian on many player values and as a result I thought it would be worthwhile to give a brief summary of my thoughts on the draft.
EARLY ROUNDS
It’s early, but I’ve determined who isn’t subscribing to the position scarcity strategy. That would be Darryl Houston Smith, who selected Rockies outfielder Matt Holliday with the second overall pick. It’s tough to argue with his numbers, but it seems like an as talented player at a position with far less depth might’ve been a better choice. As a result there are at least six other players I might take before Holliday, including David Wright, Jose Reyes, Hanley Ramirez, Johan Santana, Ryan Howard, and possibly even Jimmy Rollins.
I know CP wasn’t thrilled with his pick of David Ortiz in the second round and while I agree with him, it’s tough to be disgusted with Big Papi. That said, I would’ve taken Brandon Phillips, BJ Upton, or Carlos Lee over Ortiz. On the flip side, I certainly wouldn’t take Carlos Beltran (R2 P6), who sports a pair of questionable knees that he had scoped this offseason and have yet to heal, not to mention a banged up left triceps.
Ugh, Ryan Boyer is building himself a nice collection of outfielders that could be feast or famine this season with three of his first four picks being Beltran, Vladimir Guerrero, and Manny Ramirez. Obviously Vlad is the safest of the three, but wouldn’t it have made more sense to grab a great value in Garrett Atkins over Manny?
Oh that’s cute, Chris Young the outfielder and Chris Young the pitcher in back-to-back picks.
Darryl Houston Smith made a great move picking Brewers outfielder Corey Hart with the 11th pick in the sixth round. A 25-year old on the cusp of the first of what could be many 30-30 seasons (he was 24-23 last year), on a team that’s on the up and up is incredible value at the back of the sixth round.
MIDDLE ROUNDS
Wow…Adrian Gonzalez in the ninth round seems like great value, but if you’ve scoured over my rankings and read other articles I’ve written, I suppose I’m a bit biased. That said, he’s just 25 and fresh off his first season of 30 homers, 100 runs, and 100 RBI.
The 11th round presented an interesting conundrum: Francisco Liriano versus Yovani Gallardo. I think too many experts are expecting Liriano to show up and pitch like he didn’t miss a beat. The guy had Tommy John and the typical timeline following that procedure is that the player returns after a year and works to rebuild their strength. In recent years we’ve seen that when that player reaches their second year post-op, they’re capable of not only regaining their strength, but in some cases being even stronger than before the surgery. This is the reason why I believe Liriano is going to be a roller coaster ride for his fantasy owners this season. Meanwhile, you have owners overreacting on Gallardo’s injury and while it very well may hinder him from being full strength before the dawn of summer, he’s certainly a safer bet for productive numbers than Liriano.
OTHER VALUE PICKS
- (R13 P10) Adam Wainwright, SP, Cardinals
- (R13 P11) Dustin McGowan, SP, Blue Jays
- (R14, P7) Jeremy Hermida, OF, Marlins
- (R14, P11) J.R. Towles, C, Astros
- (R15, P2) Aaron Hill, 2B, Blue Jays
- (R15, P7) Willy Taveras, OF, Rockies
- (R15, P8) Josh Hamilton, OF, Rangers
- (R15, P9) Ryan Garko, 1b, Indians
- (R17, P7) Joe Blanton, SP, Athletics
- (R18, P9) Carlos Marmol, RP, Cubs
- (R18, P12) Ty Wigginton, 2B/3B, Astros
- (R21, P5) Rafael Betancourt, RP, Indians
- (R22, P2) Jason Kubel, OF, Twins
- (R23, P9) Scott Baker, SP, Twins
Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: Fantasy Baseball, Zack Greinke, Carlos Gomez, Francisco Liriano, Rafael Betancourt, Jason Kubel, Dontrelle Willis, Gavin Floyd, John Danks, Carlos Quentin, Joe Borowski, Masahide Kobayashi, Rafael Perez, Adam Miller, Aaron Laffey, Luke Hochevar, Scott Baker
My “Line of Questioning” series of articles over at Mock Draft Central continues with a look at the AL Central. In this series I’m looking at the top 10 questions that I think fantasy owners want answered in each division. There are probably other questions left out that you’d like answers to, but I picked the ones I thought were the most interesting. You’ll find the AL Central article here.
Shortly after the Cardinals learned of a warrant being issued for the arrest of utility man Scott Spiezio, the team officially released him. Sources say that Spiezio is wanted in Orange County, California on six different charges, including driving under the influence and assault, all stemming from an incident in late December.
I’m not going to have time to go into depth on Tuesday’s developments with Scott Kazmir, but the story is linked here. It sounds like the Rays will play it safe with him and let him rest between now and Opening Day, which is obviously the right thing to do.
Fortunately, it sounds like stiffness was the culprit in his elbow and nothing more serious than that.
