108 Stitches

It dawned on me when talking with a friend who had read one of my recent articles that it might be worthwhile to explain to some readers why I choose the stats I do for preparing for the season and analyzing players. I figure the best way to discuss this is in two posts, one for hitters and one for pitchers. We’ll start today with pitchers.

POSSIBLE OUTCOMES: When a pitcher faces a hitter, there are four possible outcomes: a strikeout, a walk, a home run, or a ball in play. What we have to remember is that a ball in play affects all pitchers the same way. More importantly, when a ball is in play, the result depends more on the defense of the players behind the pitcher than the pitcher himself.

STRIKEOUT RATE (K/9IP): There are plenty of studies conducted by people at Baseball HQ, Baseball Prospectus, and Rotowire that conclude a ball in play falls for a hit around 30 percent of the time. Meanwhile a strikeout is obviously an out 100 percent of the time. So let’s say Johan Santana strikes out 12 batters, then he only needs to get 15 more batted balls to become outs. Then there is Santana’s former teammate, Carlos Silva who strikes out three batters and faces the tall task of collecting 24 more batted ball outs. That is precisely why he rarely stays in a game long enough to collect those additional 24 outs, it’s a monumental task for any pitcher and we can draw the conclusion then that a pitcher who heads down this road lacks the polish to put up elite numbers.

STRIKEOUT-TO-WALK RATIO (K:BB Ratio): When a pitcher strikes out a batter it shows he is being successful with changing speeds and getting his pitches to move. When that pitcher walks a batter, it provides us valuable feedback on how well he is commanding or locating his pitches. An average pitcher will strike out twice as many batters as he walks and a ratio of 3:1 or higher is preferred.

HOME RUN RATE (HR/9IP): The event of a home run can appear random at times, but it most certainly is not. There are underlying reasons why a pitcher allowed a hitter to club his offering into the seats. The K/9IP and K:BB ratio show a pitchers ability to control and command his pitches and his inability to do so can result in him leaving a pitch up and a hitter connecting for a home run. It’s fairly obvious that giving up homers is detrimental to a pitcher’s ability to put himself in a position to succeed. Another key stat that relates to HR/9IP is ground ball/fly ball rate.

GROUND BALL RATE (GB Rate)/FLY BALL RATE (FB Rate): Pitchers who keep the ball on the ground tend to strike out fewer batters and allow more hits, but they also give up fewer homers and typically post a lower ERA. Research has shown that ground ball pitchers still come out ahead because a lower ERA leads to a greater number of wins. An example of some starting pitchers who have posted both a high K/9IP and high GB rate last season include stars like the Diamondbacks’ Brandon Webb, Mariners’ Felix Hernandez, and Blue Jays’ Roy Halladay. What’s more important to fantasy owners like myself is the list of up and comers that includes: the Royals’ Luke Hochevar, Marlins’ Andrew Miller, Orioles’ Adam Loewen, Jays’ Dustin McGowan, Giants’ Tim Lincecum, Rockies’ Franklin Morales, Rays’ J.P. Howell, and Rangers’ Kason Gabbard to name a few.

In conclusion, what I have found is very effective when it comes to pitching analysis is (in this order): Strikeout Rate, Strikeout-to-Walk Ratio, and Home Run Rate.