108 Stitches

I’ve read plenty of research this offseason that claims the pool of available stolen bases has become much more concentrated and I believe there is some truth to that. Since 1871, 275,557 bases have been stolen at the major league level. Consider the number of players who swiped 20 bags or more in a season over the last five years.

• 2002 = 33 players
• 2003 = 26 players
• 2004 = 27 players
• 2005 = 27 players
• 2006 = 35 players
• 2007 = 42 players

It’s tough for me to imagine that 42 number free falling in the matter of one season and with that many stolen bases available, I’d prefer to get as many as possible from bargain sources. Here are a my three favorite sleeper sources for steals this season.

1) Eugenio Velez, SS/2b, Giants
Don’t be fooled by the fact Velez doesn’t appear on the Giants depth chart right now, he leads the team with 14 spring hits and nine spring steals. The 25-year old outfielder has been groomed as a utility infielder this spring and considering Omar Vizquel is banged up and the second base tandem of Ray Durham and Kevin Frandsen are fairly average, it’s reasonable to assume he’ll pick up his fair share of at bats. He has stolen 118 bases in the minors over the last two seasons and while his ability to get on base consistently is still in question, he’s certainly a solid speculative steals source.

2) Ryan Theriot, SS, Cubs
Unlike Velez, most owners in your fantasy league probably will recognize Theriot’s name. That said, he’s going undrafted in some league formats over on Mock Draft Central, with an ADP of 256.43, making his clearly still a sleeper value. He stole 28 bases in 537 at bats with the Cubbies last season and news came from the Chicago Sun-Times this week that he’ll serve as the team’s leadoff man to start the season, a role that just may last well into the season. He consistently stole bases throughout his minor league career, so it’s a skill he obviously owns and at the top of the lineup he should get even more opportunities to rack up the steals.

3) Nate McLouth, OF, Pirates
McLouth was largely forgotten about behind Jason Bay, Chris Duffy, Nyjer Morgan, et. al, but then he hit 13 homers and stole 22 bases in 329 at bats in 2007, firmly stating his case to be the starting center fielder in Pittsburgh. He’s still battling Morgan for the starting job this season, but he has a strong set of perheripheral stats that suggest he has a great shot at not only winning the starting job, but being productive in it. His 11% walk rate and 77% contact rate suggest there is enough upside to justify an end game pick or $1-2 bucks at the auction table this spring.