108 Stitches

POSITION SCARCITY

What are your thoughts on position scarcity? Do you take this concept into account when you draft? Or should you always just grab the best available players?

Thanks for the question Dark Horse. I think position scarcity can sometimes get out of hand and I’m a culprit of it. Through the first 2-3 rounds of a draft, there are players who will put up better numbers than say, Chase Utley and yet people take him before guys who very well may outproduce his numbers.

I try to take the best player available for the first few rounds and then adjust to favor position scarcity. In the event I’m staring at two guys who have VERY similar numbers, I’ll always favor the guy at the position thinner on talent.

FANTASY RESOURCES
I’m always looking for a solid reliable fantasy resource that i feel agree with my point of views.
How do you choose a respected source, or do you make your own projections? I’m assuming you still need some kind of source.

Thanks for the question Fred! I glad you’re enjoying the site. I hope it continues and I want to make sure you know I take constructive criticism well so if there is ever something you’re looking for, feel free to drop me a comment on it.

As for sources, it’s a long process but I’ll try to summarize. Over the course of playing fantasy baseball for 15 years, I believe I’ve bought almost every magazine, book, and subscribed or at least seen the majority of reputable websites out there. Heck, I’ve been lucky enough to work for a couple of them. For me I’m very clear on my process of preparing for an upcoming season and I know exactly what tools I need to get the most out of that prep.

Many sites/magazines have grown stale and they don’t challenge me to think about a player I may not have thought about or to think about players I am looking at in completely different ways. On top of challenging myself, I turned the corner about four years ago in regards to believing that what we are chasing before we can inevitably chase our league trophy is what a player will do next year. We need a way to more effectively predict what a player is capable of and that is why the No. 1 source I believe in is BaseballHQ. I also read Baseball Prospectus, but I think Ron Shandler and his crew at HQ do a better job of explaining things in a way that even a beginner can understand. Sabermetrics can be VERY intimidating, but they seem to make it more inviting. That and the fact that I’ve been consistently finishing in the money since I starting buying the Baseball Forecaster (HQ’s book and the only book you should be buying each spring) and reading their stuff.

I used to think Rotowire and Rotoworld were the best sources for news in the fantasy industry and they are still near the top, but their analysis of the news leaves much to be desired. Something that comes with experience is when you hear a specific injury and you can relate it to a player you once owned who had the same injury, you can put recovery times into perspective and tell right away if someone is feeding you a load of crap. That happens a lot…more in football than baseball, but it happens all the same.

So I rambled I guess, but your answer is you definitely need sources and I’ve been able to filter mine down to the very few I trust. HQ doesn’t tell me to necessarily draft Player A or Player B, they give me more than enough reason to show which direction a player is trending and let me digest it and figure out for myself the best direction to go. A source like that combined with my experience and ability to draw upon what I’ve learned from past mistakes makes me very confident heading into every fantasy baseball season.

Thanks Bracks,
that’s great info, i’ll definately go buy the HQ book. So do you play in any keepers leagues? I’m guesing you do pretty well in those if you do. Do you use the same approach when looking 2-3 yrs out as apposed to just this years draft? I’ll be playing in one this year for the first time.
How many leagues do you playin, and waht type?

Your welcome Fred. The HQ book is money well spent. I mentioned in my response to you I think over on the Top 30 Prospects page that I restrict all of my league participation to keeper league formats. I just think that when I drafted well enough to secure the next big phenom, I want to be rewarded for that beyond just one season.

I had a pretty good year last year, finishing in the money in all three of my leagues, winning one thanks to Adrian Gonzalez’ homer in the wild tiebreaker game at the end of the year. I know some people play in as many leagues as possible, but I really prefer to focus my efforts on no more than three, both for time and for money constraints.

All of my keeper leagues are formatted in a way that you can’t look TOO far out. In order to keep a player, that player has to have played in a major league game. So last year when I had Evan Longoria and the Rays stubbornly refused to call him up, I lost out. So typically I can’t justify drafting a guy that is more than a couple years from the bigs because they are essentially dead weight with that rule in place.

Someday I want to start a keeper league that is auction based and you sign players to contract ranging in 1-5 year terms with an established escalator to figure their salary increases from year to year. It’s complicated though and until I have the time to manage it I’m not going to bite off more than I can chew.

hey thanks Bracks,
that league would be an awesume format, probably a bit over my head though. As i said i’m inheriting a team in a keeper league, 5×5 12 team mixed this year for the first time.
Here are my choices for keepers. We can keep as many as 7 players. These are my best guys IMO.
Hafner
Griffey
Andrew Jones
Mike Young
H Matsui
Pat Burrell
Juan Pierre

Maddux
AJ Burnett
Kasmir (I think he’s hurt)
C Wang
Scott Baker
Isringhausen

I know my guys are old, but who whould you choose, and what should I look for in the draft?
Any help would be great.
~Fred

Fred-
I really need to know what you have to give up to keep players. Do you give a pick a few rounds ahead of where said player was picked last year? I also need to know if you have a limit to how many years you can keep a player.

Without knowing this I would say you want to hold onto Kazmir for sure. He’s hurt now, but clearly has as much or more upside than any of the players you listed. I think you probably want to keep a guy like Michael Young simply due to the fact that the position he plays is thin on talent. I’m also liking Burnett and Wang. The former because of his upside and the latter because he’s a safe bet for a ton of wins given the team he plays for.

Mr. Bracks,
How many innings will Rich Harden Thow this year?

Smutt Fairy-
I have no confidence in Harden’s ability to stay healthy. Sure, there are reports he’s looking good so far in camp, but these types of comments are essentially baseless. They go to no lengths to predict whether or not he’ll be able to avoid another malady. I think he throws around 100 innings, give or take 20.

Hey Mr. Bracks,
Sorry, we can keep the players for a max of three years. these will all be first year keepers for me as i’m taking ove r the new team. They are considered 18th rd players and you need to stack them. we draft 25 rounds.
Kasmir looks too be coming back ok. I was also thinking Izzy, Hafner, and Matsui and your choiceof Young. anyone else worth while?
thanks Fred,

Fred-
Knowing the rules, I like Hafner, Kazmir, Young, and possibly Burnett. I think you’ll get good numbers from the first three over the next couple years and Burnett is a wild card, but could be extremely productive if he stays healthy. That’s a BIG if though. Hafner is a tricky one if he’s only eligible at utlity. Still, he’s worth the risk.